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1. Research on the combined PollyVote

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  1. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). Assessing the 2016 U.S. presidential election popular vote forecasts. In A. Cavari, R. Powell & K. Mayer (Eds.), The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, pp. 137-158.
  2. Graefe, A. (2017). The PollyVote’s long-term forecast for the 2017 German federal electionPS: Political Science & Politics50(3), 693-696.
  3. Campbell, J. E., Norpoth, H., Abramowitz, A. I., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Tien, C., Erikson, R. S., Wlezien, C., Lockerbie, B., Holbrook, T. M., Jerôme, B., Jerôme-Speziari, V., Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). A Recap of the 2016 Election ForecastsPS: Political Science & Politics, 50(2), 331-338.
  4. Graefe, A., Jones, R. J. J., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2016). The PollyVote forecast for the 2016 American Presidential ElectionPS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 687-690.
  5. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). Assessing the 2016 U.S. presidential election popular vote forecasts. In A. Cavari, R. Powell & K. Mayer (Eds.), The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, pp. 137-158.
  6. Graefe, A. (2017). The PollyVote’s long-term forecast for the 2017 German federal electionPS: Political Science & Politics50(3), 693-696.
  7. Campbell, J. E., Norpoth, H., Abramowitz, A. I., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Tien, C., Erikson, R. S., Wlezien, C., Lockerbie, B., Holbrook, T. M., Jerôme, B., Jerôme-Speziari, V., Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J. & Cuzán, A. G. (2017). A Recap of the 2016 Election ForecastsPS: Political Science & Politics, 50(2), 331-338.
  8. Graefe, A., Jones, R. J. J., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2016). The PollyVote forecast for the 2016 American Presidential ElectionPS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 687-690.
  9. Graefe, A. (2015). German election forecasting: Comparing and combining methods for 2013. German Politics, 24(2), 195-204. [Replication data available here.]
  10. Graefe, A. (2015). Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomesResearch & Politics, 2(1), 1-5. [Replication data available here.]
  11. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2014). Combining forecasts: An application to electionsInternational Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54. [Replication data available here.]
  12. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Cuzán, A. G. & Jones, R. J. Jr. (2014). Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 presidential elections: The PollyVotePS: Political Science & Politics, 47(2), 427-431. [Replication data available here.]
  13. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2013). Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVoteForesight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 28, 50-51.
  14. Graefe, A., Jones, R. J. Jr., Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2012). The PollyVote’s year-ahead forecast of the 2012 U.S. presidential electionForesight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 24, 13-14.
  15. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. Jr. & Cuzán, A. G. (2009). Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The PollyVoteForesight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 12, 41-42.
  16. Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. J. Jr. (2005). The Pollyvote: Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election, Paper presented at the 2005 International Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio.
  17. Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. J. Jr. (2005). How we computed the PollyVoteForesight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 1, 51-52.
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