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# Category: 2. PollyVote method

## 2.8 Why does the PollyVote ignore the third-party vote?

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On October 3, 2016
The PollyVote predicts the two-party vote. It does not provide vote share forecasts for third-party candidates. Instead, third-party votes are allocated proportionally to the major parties. The main reason is that four of the six component methods –namely prediction markets, citizen forecasts, index models, and...

## 2.4 When does combining forecasts work?

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On January 28, 2016

While combining is useful whenever more than one forecasts for the outcome are available, the approach is particularly valuable if Many forecasts from evidence-based methods are available. The forecasts draw.

## 2.2 Why does combining forecasts work so well?

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On January 28, 2016

One intuitive explanation as to why combining improves accuracy is that it enables forecasters to use more information, and to do so in an objective manner. Moreover, bias exists both.

## 2.3 How many component methods does the PollyVote use?

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On January 28, 2016
For the elections in 2004 and 2008, the PollyVote combined forecasts from four methods: polls, prediction markets, econometric models, and expert judgment. In 2012, Polly added index models as a fifth component. Since 2016, Polly uses vote expectation survey as a sixth component.

## 2.5 Why combine within and across component methods?

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On January 28, 2016

The rationale behind combining forecasts first within and then across component methods is to equalize the impact of each component method, regardless of whether a component included many forecasts or.

## 2.6 Why use equal weights to combine the forecasts?

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On January 28, 2016

A widespread concern when combining forecasts is the question of how best to weight the components, and many scholars have proposed different methods for doing so. However, an early review.

## 2.7 How often does PollyVote update its forecast?

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On January 23, 2016
The forecasts are updated whenever new information becomes available, which is often several times a day.

## 2.1 How does the PollyVote work?

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On January 21, 2016

The PollyVote is based on the principle of combining forecasts. That is, PollyVote combines forecasts from different forecasting methods, the so-called component methods, each of which rely on different data..

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