Minnesota: New KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead

On October 10, KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
49

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between September 16 and September 20. The sample size was 625 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 48.3% was obtained by Clinton in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on November 2, for Trump this number was 51.7%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 52.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Minnesota. Compared to her numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.3% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Vermont.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New ABC News/Washington Post poll: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

ABC News/Washington Post published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

ABC News/Washington Post poll results
48

Clinton

47

Trump

Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was conducted from October 27 to October 30 with 1167 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. On October 29 Clinton obtained 51.0% in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and Trump obtained only 49.0%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Idaho: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 36.6% for Clinton, and 63.4% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to collect 63.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 64.2% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New NBC/SurveyMonkey poll shows Clinton with 7 points lead

Results of a new national poll conducted by NBC/SurveyMonkey were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who responded, 51.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The Internet poll was carried out between October 24 and October 30. The sample size was 40816 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-0.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. To compare: 54.3% was gained by Clinton in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on October 16, for Trump this result was only 45.7%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.9%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Significant advantage for Clinton in NBC News poll

Results of a new national poll carried out by NBC News were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

NBC News poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 24 to October 30 among 4081 participants. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. To compare: 55.4% was gained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on October 13, for Trump this result was only 44.6%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Wisconsin: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.9% of the two-party vote share in Wisconsin, while Trump will win 47.1%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to end up with 53.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Washington: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 59.0% of the two-party vote share in Washington, whereas Trump will win 41.0%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain only 58.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Washington. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Wyoming: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 27.1% for Clinton, and 73.0% for Trump in Wyoming. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to end up with 27.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 70.1% of the two-party vote in Wyoming. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.