Crosstab model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton, and 60.8% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was still predicted to collect 61.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Utah. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.8% for Clinton, and 47.2% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.8% for Clinton, and 49.2% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.0% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.4% for Clinton, and 51.6% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was still predicted to achieve 51.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 51.9%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect only 47.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts. The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton, and 46.1% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to win 45.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 69.6% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 30.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 68.3% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will end up with 31.7%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., whereas Trump will win 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 91.4% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Minnesota: Clinton holds substantial advantage in latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll

Results of a new poll conducted by KSTP/SurveyUSA were distributed on November 6. The poll asked interviewees from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
53

Clinton

42

Trump

Of those who responded, 53.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 22 and October 25. The sample size was 656 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.8% for Clinton and 44.2% for Trump. In the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on September 20 Clinton received only 53.3%, while Trump received 46.7%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Minnesota has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.