Update – PollyVote

DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 33.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 69.9% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 93.8% for Clinton, and 6.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

New Monmouth University poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead

Monmouth University published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Monmouth University poll results

Clinton

Trump

The results show that 50.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out between November 3 and November 6. The sample size was 748 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. On October 16 Clinton obtained 56.4% in the Monmouth University poll and Trump obtained only 43.6%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth University poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.

North Carolina: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Quinnipiac poll

Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were published on November 1. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Quinnipiac poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 27 to November 1 among 602 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. For comparison: 53.2% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on October 26, for Trump this result was only 46.8%.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

New Mexico: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Zia PollZia Poll poll

On November 6, Zia PollZia Poll released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Zia PollZia Poll poll results

Clinton

Trump

The results show that 46.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from November 1 to November 2, among a random sample of 1102 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 52.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Mexico. Compared to her numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.0 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

Nevada: Trump holds slim advantage in recent Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Remington Research (R) poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30. A total of 1176 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.1%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

Nevada: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Emerson poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were announced on October 18. The poll asked respondents from Nevada for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Emerson poll results

Clinton

Trump

The results show that 44.0% of interviewees would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between October 26 and October 27. The sample size was 550 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Nevada has Clinton at 48.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

Emerson poll in Missouri: Clinton trails by 15 points

Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were announced on November 1. The poll asked participants from Missouri for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 37.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 52.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 28 and October 31. The sample size was 650 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 41.6% for Clinton and 58.4% for Trump. In the latest Emerson poll on September 13 Clinton obtained 42.0%, while Trump obtained only 58.0%.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls in Missouri sees Trump at 56.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is significant.

Crosstab model in Wyoming: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 26.3% of the two-party vote share in Wyoming, while Trump will win 73.7%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect 26.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 69.8% of the two-party vote in Wyoming. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.