Methods completely agree on the election outcome

In the latest update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 54.1% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 45.9% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.4% of the vote.

A trend in the prediction markets and the index models in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The index models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 10 days. Trump has however continuously become more popular in expert surveys and Citizen forecasts. Upward trend has persisted in expert surveys, he was able to win 2.5 percentage points during the past 25 days.

The aggregated polls forecast of 53.4% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably high relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 55.5% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Consensus among component methods about election outcome

PollyVote today forecasts a national major-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 54.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.3% of the vote.

A trend in favor of Clinton has taken shape in the index models. It has shown an increase of 0.6 percentage points in the last 9 days. Trump has however continuously become more popular in Citizen forecasts, econometric models and expert surveys. Upward trend has remained constant in expert surveys, he was able to win 2.5 percentage points during the past 24 days.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.2% in expectation polls is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,expectation polls predicted a vote share of 54.9% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Consensus among component methods about election outcome

The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national major-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.5% of the vote.

Trump has however become the front runner in expert surveys, prediction markets and econometric models. During 23 days had won an additional 2.5 percentage points in expert surveys, making this longest running upward trend.

Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.5% in combined polls is particularly high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 55.3% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Consensus among component methods about election outcome

Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.6% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.1% of the vote.

Trump has however continuously become more popular in econometric models, prediction markets and expert surveys. Upward trend has remained constant in expert surveys, he was able to obtain 2.5 percentage points during the past 22 days.

The Citizen forecasts forecast of 52.6% for the Democrats is notably high in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 55.1% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Methods completely agree on the election outcome

In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 53.3% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.8% of the vote.

Trump has however become the new favorite in expert surveys and prediction markets. During 21 days had won an additional 2.5 percentage points in expert surveys, making this longest running upward trend.

The Citizen forecasts forecast of 52.6% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably high relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, expectation polls predicted a vote share of 55.1% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

In today's update, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will obtain 53.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while predicts that Trump will win.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 59.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump has however become the forerunner in prediction markets and expert surveys. During 20 days had gained an additional 2.5 percentage points in expert surveys, making this longest running upward trend.

Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 50.0% in econometric models is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Consensus among component methods about election outcome

PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 59.7% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 50.0% in econometric models is noticeably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton in the lead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast

Polly the parrot today predicts a national major-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.

A look at Polly's component methods

The component methods widely agree on who will be the next U.S. President: Five expect a victory for Clinton and expects that Trump will win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.6% for Clinton. With a vote share of 59.2% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 15.1 percentage points.

In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 50.0% in econometric models is notably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

In the latest update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will gain 53.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.1% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 53.8% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.9% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 53.7% in index models is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, index models predicted a vote share of 53.3% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton in the lead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast

Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 54.0% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.0% for Trump.

Looking at the component methods

Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.

Index models predict a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.3% of the vote.

Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 16.3 percentage points.

The econometric models forecast of 50.0% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather low relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.