Clinton in the lead, according to latest PollyVote forecast

The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.

This is what Polly's component methods predict

The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 50.2% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton loses 2.7 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton ahead, according to today’s PollyVote forecast

In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.4% for Trump.

Looking at the component methods

The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.6% of the vote.

Compared to the previous week there have been the greatest fluctuations in the prediction markets. Clinton loses 2.4 percentage points.

The prediction markets forecast of 55.6% for the Democratic candidate is rather high relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 57.1% for.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton leads, according to today’s PollyVote forecast

In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.4% for Trump.

What Polly's components predict

There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.1% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump gained 2.8 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has presented a change this large.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 55.1% in prediction markets is noticeably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 57.5% for the Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Methods completely agree on the election outcome

Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.3% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.9% of the vote.

A trend favoring Clinton has appeared in the expectation polls, the prediction markets and the expert surveys. The trend continued for the longest time in the expert surveys — within 19 days Clinton's vote share has increased by 2.1 percentage points.

The econometric models forecast of 50.3% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather low compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.2% for John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Methods completely agree on the election outcome

PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Index models predict a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.4% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

A trend in the aggregated polls, the Citizen forecasts, the index models and the prediction markets in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The index models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 16 days. According to expert surveys Clinton had, on the other hand, continuously lost votes during 31 days. The loss amounted to a total of 2.5 percentage points.

The combined polls forecast of 52.4% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably high compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 54.9% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton leads, according to latest PollyVote forecast

Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 53.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump.

Looking at the components

There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Index models predict a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.8% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump lost 4.5 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.

The combined polls forecast of 52.9% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather high in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 55.2% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Polly the parrot predicts win for Clinton

Today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 53.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.4% for Trump.

Looking at Polly's components

There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.9% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 4.6 percentage points.

Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 50.4% in econometric models is noticeably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 52.9% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton ahead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast

In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will garner 53.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.1% for Trump.

Looking at the component methods

There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 58.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 4.9 percentage points.

The expectation polls forecast of 54.1% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather high compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 54.9% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Methods completely agree on the election outcome

PollyVote currently forecasts a national major-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are Citizen forecasts with a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

A trend in the prediction markets, the index models and the aggregated polls in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The index models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 12 days. Trump has however continuously become more popular in expert surveys and expectation polls. Upward trend has persisted in expert surveys, he was able to win 2.5 percentage points during the past 27 days.

The econometric models forecast of 50.4% for the Democratic candidate is rather high in comparison to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 52.9% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Consensus among component methods about election outcome

Polly currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expectation polls with a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.2% of the vote.

A trend favoring Clinton has appeared in the aggregated polls, the prediction markets and the index models. The trend continued for the longest time in the index models — within 11 days Clinton's vote share has increased by 0.6 percentage points. Trump has however continuously become more popular in expert surveys and Citizen forecasts. Upward trend has persisted in expert surveys, he was able to obtain 2.5 percentage points during the past 26 days.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 53.2% in aggregated polls is notably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, combined polls predicted a vote share of 55.5% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.