Clinton leads by 7 points in new NBC News poll

Results of a new national poll administered by NBC News were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC News poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 31 to November 6 among 3014 participants. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the NBC News poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Monmouth University poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead

Monmouth University published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Monmouth University poll results
50

Clinton

44

Trump

The results show that 50.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out between November 3 and November 6. The sample size was 748 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. On October 16 Clinton obtained 56.4% in the Monmouth University poll and Trump obtained only 43.6%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth University poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

CBS/Times poll: Trump trails by a narrow margin

CBS/Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

CBS/Times poll results
47

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 47.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was conducted from November 2 to November 6 with 1426 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.6 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. On November 1 Clinton obtained only 51.7% in the CBS/Times poll and Trump obtained 48.4%.

Results compared to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to her numbers in the CBS/Times poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest IBD/TIPP poll

IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

IBD/TIPP poll results
43

Clinton

42

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted via phone from November 3 to November 6, among a random sample of 1026 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.1 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest IBD poll

IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

IBD poll results
43

Clinton

42

Trump

According to the results, 43.0% of respondents would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 3 to November 6. A total of 1026 respondents responded. The sampling error is +/-3.1 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.9%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

4 points lead for Clinton in latest CBS poll

CBS released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

CBS poll results
47

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from November 2 to November 6 with 1426 participants. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. For comparison: 56.0% was obtained by Clinton in the CBS poll on October 16, for Trump this number was only 44.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest Bloomberg poll: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

Bloomberg published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Bloomberg poll results
46

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 4 to November 6. A total of 799 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. To compare: 55.0% was gained by Clinton in the Bloomberg poll on October 17, for Trump this result was only 45.1%.

Results compared to other polls

Clinton is currently at 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

FOX poll: Trump trails by 4 points

FOX published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

FOX poll results
48

Clinton

44

Trump

The results show that 48.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via phone from November 3 to November 6 among 1295 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. On October 17 Clinton received 53.9% in the FOX poll and Trump received only 46.2%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. In comparison to her numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest ABC poll: Trump trails by a negligible margin

ABC published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

ABC poll results
49

Clinton

45

Trump

The results show that 49.0% of participants would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between November 2 and November 5. The sample size was 1937 participants. The sampling error is +/-2.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls may contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. To compare: 52.7% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC poll on November 4, for Trump this result was only 47.3%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 51.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. In comparison to her numbers in the ABC poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Bloomberg/Selzer poll: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat

Results of a new national poll administered by Bloomberg/Selzer were announced. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Bloomberg/Selzer poll results
46

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out from November 4 to November 6 with 799 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. For comparison: 55.0% was gained by Clinton in the Bloomberg/Selzer poll on October 17, for Trump this number was only 45.1%.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Bloomberg/Selzer poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.