Oklahoma: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 35.7% for Clinton, and 64.3% for Trump in Oklahoma.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Oklahoma.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Iowa: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 86.6% for Clinton, and 13.4% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 69.9% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 93.8% for Clinton, and 6.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Washington, D.C..

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

California: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 65.5% for Clinton, and 34.5% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Maryland: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 64.9% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 35.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Massachusetts: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 66.7% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, whereas Trump will end up with 33.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Massachusetts.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.