Results of a new poll carried out by Remington Research (R) were announced. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular interest.
Remington Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% intend to give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 among 1332 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Trump at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.