Crosstab model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.9% for Clinton, and 49.1% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to garner 48.7% of the vote.

In Nevada, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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