Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 53.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump.
Looking at the components
There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Index models predict a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.8% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump lost 4.5 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
The combined polls forecast of 52.9% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather high in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 55.2% for Barack Obama.