IBD/TIPP published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 26 to October 31, among a random sample of 1018 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. On October 30 Clinton obtained 51.1% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained only 48.9%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. Compared to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.6 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.