ABC News/Washington Post published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
ABC News/Washington Post poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from October 27 to October 30 with 1167 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. On October 29 Clinton obtained 51.0% in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and Trump obtained only 49.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.