Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton, and 49.7% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to win 49.2% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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