The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 49.0%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.3% of the vote.
Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.