PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Index models predict a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.4% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
A trend in the aggregated polls, the Citizen forecasts, the index models and the prediction markets in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The index models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 16 days. According to expert surveys Clinton had, on the other hand, continuously lost votes during 31 days. The loss amounted to a total of 2.5 percentage points.
The combined polls forecast of 52.4% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably high compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 54.9% for Barack Obama.