Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 64.5%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 64.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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