Utah: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.0% for Clinton, and 62.0% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to win 39.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 62 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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