Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 49.5%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.5% of the vote.

In Nevada, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.1%. Compared to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 50.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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