Crosstab model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.9% for Clinton, and 49.1% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.4% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 50.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.