Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30. A total of 1176 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.1%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.