Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were published on November 1. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 27 to November 1 among 602 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. For comparison: 53.2% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on October 26, for Trump this result was only 46.8%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.