In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.4% for Trump.
Looking at the component methods
The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 55.6% of the vote.
Compared to the previous week there have been the greatest fluctuations in the prediction markets. Clinton loses 2.4 percentage points.
The prediction markets forecast of 55.6% for the Democratic candidate is rather high relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 57.1% for.