NBC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 3 to November 5 among 1282 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. To compare: 53.7% was obtained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on October 30, for Trump this result was only 46.3%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.