Results of a new poll conducted by Morning Call were released. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Morning Call poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 30 to November 4 among 405 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. Relative to her numbers in the Morning Call poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.