Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.8% for Clinton, and 47.2% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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