Clinton leads, according to today’s PollyVote forecast

In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.4% for Trump.

What Polly's components predict

There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.1% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump gained 2.8 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has presented a change this large.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 55.1% in prediction markets is noticeably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 57.5% for the Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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