Monmouth University published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Monmouth University poll results
The results show that 50.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out between November 3 and November 6. The sample size was 748 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. On October 16 Clinton obtained 56.4% in the Monmouth University poll and Trump obtained only 43.6%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth University poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.