All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States.
Popular and Electoral Vote Prediction
Clinton will win the popular vote by 5.0 percentage points in the two-party vote (52.5% vs. 47.5%). Based on the PollyVote’s historical error, Clinton’s chance to win is above 99%. In terms of the Electoral College, Polly predicts Clinton to receive 323 electoral votes compared to 215 for Trump.
Forecast over the course of the campaign
Forecasting is useful only when it can aid decision-making. Thus, Election Eve forecasts are only for entertainment and betting— and writing victory and concession speeches.
The PollyVote has predicted Clinton to win beginning with its first release in early January 2016. Since the first Super Tuesday on March 1st, when it became clear that Trump would become the Republican nominee, Clinton’s lead in the PollyVote forecast averaged 5.6 points. Throughout the course of the campaign, it ranged from a minimum of 3.8 points to a maximum of 8.2 points. In other words, the PollyVote never had Trump close to winning.
Since its launch in 2004, the PollyVote has always correctly predicted the winner on any given day, months in advance, and with little forecast error. Tonight, we will find out whether Polly the Parrot will keep her clean slate. Check back in the days to come as we will provide analyses of the different forecasting methods’ accuracy.