The Pollyvote team has completed its third survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late February survey, conducted between February 26 and 29, fifteen experts responded. The forecasts for the Democratic popular two-party vote ranged from a minimum of 48.5% to a maximum of 54.5%. The...
For some models, Polly now allows you to manipulate the variable values and compute your own model forecasts. For now, this is available for the Fair model and Lichtman's Keys.
Helmut Norpoth provided an update of his Primary model forecast. The initial forecast posted on February 27 relied on a polling data, not actual results, for the Democratic primary in.
Polly added the Primary model by Helmut Norpoth to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories and candidates' performance in early primaries. Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the model predicts a clear victory for the Republicans, with Donald Trump gaining 54.7% of the two-party vote...
Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt.
The results of the New Hampshire primary might look good for Donald Trump's prospects to win the Republican nomination. And yet, according to the PollyVote, the Democratic party is the.
The Pollyvote team has completed its second survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late January survey, conducted between January 26 and 30, 17 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded. The mean forecast is that the Democrats will garner...
The Pollyvote team has completed its first survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late December survey, conducted between December 26 and 31, eight academics.
Today, the PollyVote published its first forecast for the 2016 election. Her first forecast of the national popular two-party vote predicts a virtual tie, with the Democrats at 50.1%, and.