For some models, Polly now allows you to manipulate the variable values and compute your own model forecasts. For now, this is available for the Fair model and Lichtman's Keys.
Helmut Norpoth provided an update of his Primary model forecast. The initial forecast posted on February 27 relied on a polling data, not actual results, for the Democratic primary in.
Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt.
The results of the New Hampshire primary might look good for Donald Trump's prospects to win the Republican nomination. And yet, according to the PollyVote, the Democratic party is the.
The Pollyvote team has completed its first survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late December survey, conducted between December 26 and 31, eight academics.
Today, the PollyVote published its first forecast for the 2016 election. Her first forecast of the national popular two-party vote predicts a virtual tie, with the Democrats at 50.1%, and.