The Daily Pennsylvanian talked to Scott Armstrong about the Pollyvote. Here are some of Scott's key points. On the motivation to launch the PollyVote in 2004 “What we were trying to do is to demonstrate to the world that if you use what we call ‘evidence...
The project team will present the PollyVote at the 2016 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), which will be held from September 1-4 in Philadelphia, PA. The title of the talk, which.
The results of a new national poll, conducted by Ipsos, were released on 9. March. In the survey participants were asked, whether they would vote for democrat Hillary Clinton or.
Scott Armstrong bets that he found a method that will help to further increase the accuracy of the combined PollyVote forecast. In particular, Scott proposes that adding a naive model will improve accuracy when uncertainty is high, such when the election is still far away and when the parties' eventual...
Polly added citizen forecasts as the sixth and final component method to its combined forecast. Citizen forecasts, also known as vote expectation surveys, are among the most accurate methods available.
Results of a new national poll carried out by ABC News were released on March 9. Participants were asked, who they would give their vote to, if the election were.
You can now compute your own forecasts based on the bio-index model, which predicts the election outcome based on information about candidates' biographies. This feature allows you See how the model forecast would change for different variable coding. Compare two hypothetical candidates against each other. See...
Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with February polling data. The most recent forecast favors the Republican candidates in hypothetical match-ups against both Clinton and Sanders. For the likely outcome.
Bruno and Véronique Jérôme updated their state-by-state political economy model. The model now predicts the Democrats to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote, compared to 50.8% for the Republicans. The.
The Pollyvote team has completed its third survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late February survey, conducted between February 26 and 29, fifteen experts responded. The forecasts for the Democratic popular two-party vote ranged from a minimum of 48.5% to a maximum of 54.5%. The...