Ray Fair did not release a forecast update from his presidential vote equation in late April due to the uncertainties regarding the GDP figures for the second and third quarter, which are inputs to his model. Fair wrote on his website: I did not make an...
The first PollyVote forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, published in late April, predicts a tight race for the national popular vote. As of April 26, the combined PollyVote.
The Pollyvote has completed its first survey of elections experts to forecast the 2020 presidential election. In the survey, conducted from April 16-20, twelve political science professors from a variety.
PollyVote just published its first forecast for this year's German federal election, which will be held on September 24. This is the second time (after 2013) that the PollyVote provides forecast of German elections. For this, the PollyVote applies the same basic method of combining forecasts,...
Since its first launch last January, the combined PollyVote forecast has consistently – and correctly – predicted Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote. And so she did, albeit barely..
The 2016 presidential election result may well be one of the biggest upsets in the history of election forecasting. Usually, after an election, people look for the best forecasters. This time, it's hard.
Based on the latest results, Donald Trump won the election with 305 electoral votes (vs. 233 for Hillary Clinton). Most likely, the final outcome will show a split between the Electoral College and the national popular vote. The New York Times currently projects that Clinton will win the...
All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States. Popular and Electoral Vote Prediction Clinton will win the.
The PollyVote team has conducted the fourth and final round of its state-level expert survey. According to the forecasts of 638 political scientists, Hillary Clinton will win 334 Electoral Votes, compared.
The PollyVote team has completed its 13th and final survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between November 6 and 7, 12 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded. As in previous rounds, all respondents expect a Clinton win....