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Final PollyVote forecast: Clinton will win

All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States.

Popular and Electoral Vote Prediction

Clinton will win the popular vote by 5.0 percentage points in the two-party vote (52.5% vs. 47.5%). Based on the PollyVote’s historical error, Clinton’s chance to win the popular vote is above 99%. In terms of the Electoral College, Polly predicts Clinton to receive 323 electoral votes compared to 215 for Trump.

Forecast over the course of the campaign

Forecasting is useful only when it can aid decision-making. Thus, Election Eve forecasts are only for entertainment and betting— and writing victory and concession speeches.

The PollyVote has predicted Clinton to win beginning with its first release in early January 2016. Since the first Super Tuesday on March 1st, when it became clear that Trump would become the Republican nominee, Clinton’s lead in the PollyVote forecast averaged 5.6 points. Throughout the course of the campaign, it ranged from a minimum of 3.8 points to a maximum of 8.2 points. In other words, the PollyVote never had Trump close to winning.

Since its launch in 2004, the PollyVote has always correctly predicted the winner on any given day, months in advance, and with little forecast error. Tonight, we will find out whether Polly the Parrot will keep her clean slate. Check back in the days to come as we will provide analyses of the different forecasting methods’ accuracy.

Political scientists predict Clinton will win 334 electoral votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump

The PollyVote team has conducted the fourth and final round of its state-level expert survey. According to the forecasts of 638 political scientists, Hillary Clinton will win 334 Electoral Votes, compared to 204 for Donald Trump.

This Electoral College prediction thus differs from the results of the previous survey round,  when the experts’ aggregate forecast was that Clinton would gain 358 Electoral Votes, compared to 180 for Trump. The difference is due to Iowa and Ohio, which the experts now see leaning towards the Republicans. For Arizona, the experts predict essentially a pure tossup in both median winning probabilities and vote shares. However, since the average forecast for Clinton’s vote share is slightly above 50%, Arizona is called for the Democrats.

The following map visualizes the experts’ median estimates regarding Clinton’s chance of winning each state.

Nebraska and Maine deserve special attention, since these two states allocate two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner plus one each to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district. The experts predict that all districts will go with the state-wide popular with two exceptions.

  • In Nebraska’s 2nd district, the Democratic candidate is expected to win 51.0% of the two-party vote.
  • In Maine’s 2nd district, the Republican candidate is expected to win the popular vote with a two-party vote share of 50.6%.

Method

We reached out to political scientists across the country and asked them two short questions:

  1. What share of the vote do you expect the nominees to receive in your home state?
  2. What do you think is Hillary Clinton’s chance of winning the election in your home state?

For experts who regard Nebraska or Maine as their home state, we additionally asked them to predict the outcome in each congressional district.

The survey was conducted from November 6 to 7. A total of 638 experts made estimates as requested. The number of experts by state ranged from 2 to 44. The table below shows the number of respondents per state as well as the median answer for each question.

    Clinton’s predicted
State N Chance of winning Two-party vote
District of Columbia 16 100% 90.4
Hawaii 2 100% 72.3
Vermont 11 99% 67.0
Maryland 22 99% 63.2
Massachusetts 17 99% 66.7
New York 23 99% 63.2
California 21 99% 62.4
Illinois 23 99% 57.9
Connecticut 19 99% 57.9
New Jersey 4 99% 58.5
Washington 7 98% 56.5
Oregon 8 98% 56.8
Delaware 13 98% 62.8
Rhode Island 6 97% 58.8
New Mexico 4 97% 53.0
Minnesota 13 95% 53.2
Maine 8 90% 53.7
Wisconsin 14 89% 52.7
Virginia 44 85% 52.7
Nevada 8 85% 52.4
Michigan 12 83% 51.6
Pennsylvania 19 80% 52.1
Colorado 10 71% 52.0
New Hampshire 10 68% 52.7
Florida 19 55% 50.6
North Carolina 23 55% 51.1
Arizona 13 50% 50.0
Ohio 15 48% 49.5
Iowa 18 43% 48.9
Alaska 4 30% 47.0
Georgia 24 29% 47.6
Missouri 12 25% 47.5
Utah 15 15% 44.4
South Carolina 12 15% 46.3
Kansas 9 15% 43.3
Alabama 6 13% 37.9
Indiana 16 10% 44.2
Texas 22 10% 45.7
Kentucky 5 8% 41.2
Montana 5 5% 41.6
South Dakota 3 5% 42.1
Louisiana 8 5% 43.2
North Dakota 6 4% 36.6
Arkansas 8 3% 41.1
Mississippi 12 2% 42.0
Idaho 15 1% 39.0
Tennessee 5 1% 42.1
West Virginia 9 0% 35.5
Nebraska 5 0% 42.1
Wyoming 4 0% 28.8
Oklahoma 11 0% 30.9

Final expert survey: Clinton will win by 4.4 points

The PollyVote team has completed its 13th and final survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between November 6 and 7, 12 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

As in previous rounds, all respondents expect a Clinton win. However, her lead has narrowed again compared to the results of the previous survey conducted a week ago.

Whereas, in late-October, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by more than 5.5 points, the new average forecast is half a percentage point lower, at 52.2% of the two-party vote (or about a 4.4-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 51.0% to 53.3%, with a standard deviation of only 0.8 points.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
  4. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  5. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  6. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  7. Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
  8. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  9. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  10. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  11. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)

and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.

New Economist poll: Clinton holds slim lead

Results of a new national poll administered by Economist were released. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Economist poll results
49

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between November 4 and November 7. The sample size was 3669 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On November 1 Clinton obtained only 51.6% in the Economist poll and Trump obtained 48.4%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Economist poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New York: Overwhelming lead for Clinton in latest Siena poll

Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Siena poll results
51

Clinton

30

Trump

The results show that 51.0% of participants will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat

KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
42

Clinton

45

Trump

The results show that 42.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 29 to November 2. A total of 516 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. For comparison: 55.8% was obtained by Clinton in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on October 25, for Trump this number was only 44.2%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Minnesota polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.4%. Compared to his numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll Trump's poll average is 5.3 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 44.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote is 7.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota: Clinton with 13 points lead

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
48

Clinton

35

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from April 25 to April 27 with 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. On October 22 Clinton obtained only 54.7% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump obtained 45.4%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Minnesota has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll in Maryland: Clinton holds huge lead

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll results
63

Clinton

28

Trump

Of those who responded, 63.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from March 30 to April 3.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 70.0% for Clinton and 30.0% for Trump. In the latest Washington Post/Univ. Of Maryland poll on April 3 Clinton obtained only 69.2%, while Trump obtained 30.8%.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.6 points below her polling numbers.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Louisiana: New JMC Analytics poll shows Trump with 10 points lead

Results of a new poll carried out by JMC Analytics were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Louisiana for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

JMC Analytics poll results
35

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump. On May 6 Clinton received only 40.9% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump received 59.1%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Trump leads in Kansas by 24 points in latest Fort Hays St. University poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Fort Hays St. University were released. The poll asked respondents from Kansas for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Fort Hays St. University poll results
34

Clinton

58

Trump

Of those who responded, 34.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 58.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 3 among 313 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-0.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 37.0% for Clinton and 63.0% for Trump. On July 21 Clinton received 38.0% in the Fort Hays St. University poll and Trump received only 62.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Kansas. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.