Results of a new poll administered by OpinionWorks were released on November 7. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.