ABC News/Washington Post released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
ABC News/Washington Post poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was in the field between October 23 and October 26. The sample size was 1109 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.