Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 25 to April 27 with 800 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump. On October 22 Clinton obtained only 54.7% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump obtained 45.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Minnesota has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.