Iowa Electronic Markets

The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are real-money (but not-for-profit) prediction markets run the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business for educational and research purposes. The IEM operates two markets for forecasting U.S. presidential election outcomes.

  1. The vote-share market predicts the vote shares won by the two major party candidates, and thus provides numerical forecasts.
  2. The winner-take-all market predicts which party will win the the popular vote, and thus provides probability forecasts.

PollyVote incorporates the IEM vote-share market predictions into her forecast of the popular two-party vote, by calculating weekly averages of the daily market prices.