The leading indicators model, developed by Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, predicts the two-party popular vote based on two variables: an index of leading economic indicators and trial-heat polls over the course of the campaign. The model’s vote equation reads as:
V = A + b1
Cumulative LEI Growth 13 + b2
|Table 1: Overview of variables used in the leading indicators model|
||Summed weighted growth in leading economic indicators through quarter 13 of the election cycle, with each quarter weighted 0.8 times the following quarter||N/A|
||Incumbent party’s candidate two-party support in polls in month X||N/A|
|V||Incumbent share of the two-party presidential vote|
Erikson, R. S. & Wlezien, C. (2016). Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls. PS: Political Science & Politics, 49(4), 669-672.