Compute your own bio-index model forecast

You can now compute your own forecasts based on the bio-index model, which predicts the election outcome based on information about candidates’ biographies. This feature allows you

  1. See how the model forecast would change for different variable coding.
  2. Compare two hypothetical candidates against each other.
  3. See how you would perform as a candidate.

To do so, go to the bio-index model page, scroll all the way down to Table 1, and adjust the variable values in the green highlighted cells. Whenever you change a variable value, the forecast will be updated at the bottom of the table.

Compute your own model forecasts

For some models, Polly now allows you to manipulate the variable values and compute your own model forecasts. For now, this is available for the Fair model and Lichtman’s Keys to the White House. Polly will soon add this functionality also for other models. Stay updated: