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Results of a new national poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of Reuters were distributed on March 17. The poll asked respondents for whom they would likely vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump. According to the...
Scott Armstrong bets that he found a method that will help to further increase the accuracy of the combined PollyVote forecast. In particular, Scott proposes that adding a naive model will improve accuracy when uncertainty is high, such when the election is still far away and when the parties'...
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