Clinton leads by 8 points in latest ABC News poll

Results of a new national poll administered by ABC News were announced. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

ABC News poll results
51

Clinton

43

Trump

According to the results, 51.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% will cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out via phone from October 21 to October 24 among 1119 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. To compare: 56.4% was gained by Clinton in the ABC News poll on October 22, for Trump this number was only 43.6%.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 91.9% for Clinton, and 8.1% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 89.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 45.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 50.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 4 percentage points lower.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

CNN poll: Clinton with 6 points lead

CNN released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

CNN poll results
51

Clinton

45

Trump

Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out between October 20 and October 23. The sample size was 517 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the CNN poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New UPI/CVOTER poll shows Clinton with 4 points lead

UPI/CVOTER published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

UPI/CVOTER poll results
50

Clinton

46

Trump

Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 17 to October 23 via Internet. A total of 1414 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Washington, D.C.: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 91.8% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., while Trump will win 8.2%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 88.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Consensus among component methods about election outcome

Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.6% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.1% of the vote.

Trump has however continuously become more popular in econometric models, prediction markets and expert surveys. Upward trend has remained constant in expert surveys, he was able to obtain 2.5 percentage points during the past 22 days.

The Citizen forecasts forecast of 52.6% for the Democrats is notably high in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 55.1% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New ABC News poll: Trump trails by a strong margin

ABC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

ABC News poll results
53

Clinton

41

Trump

The results show that 53.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via phone from October 20 to October 22 among 874 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump. On October 13 Clinton received only 52.1% in the ABC News poll and Trump received 47.9%.

Results compared to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.6%. Relative to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 91.9% of the two-party vote share in Washington, D.C., while Trump will win 8.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 88.3% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Washington, D.C.: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 91.9% for Clinton, and 8.2% for Trump in Washington, D.C..

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 89.0% of the two-party vote in Washington, D.C.. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.