West Virginia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 33.3% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, while Trump will end up with 66.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they can include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 33.5% for Clinton, and 66.5% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.8% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 33.6% for Clinton, and 66.4% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 33.6% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, while Trump will end up with 66.4%. In comparison, on November 3, Clinton was predicted to gain 34.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of West Virginia econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 66.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 19.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

PPP (D) poll in West Virginia: Clinton trails by 27 points

Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D) were spread. The poll asked interviewees from West Virginia for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

PPP (D) poll results
30

Clinton

57

Trump

Of those who replied, 30.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1 among 1201 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.8 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.8% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: Overwhelming lead for Trump in new PPP (D) poll

Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D) were published on November 5. The poll asked participants from West Virginia for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

PPP (D) poll results
30

Clinton

57

Trump

The results show that 30.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 57.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1. A total of 1201 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-2.8 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of West Virginia polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 65.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.8 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 62.8% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 33.4% for Clinton, and 66.6% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on November 1 Trump was still predicted to win 67.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

West Virginia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 33.1% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, whereas Trump will win 66.9%. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to win 33.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.