DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 33.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Vermont: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 70.8% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 29.2%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect 70.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 69.6% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 30.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Vermont: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 70.8% for Clinton, and 29.2% for Trump in Vermont.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 3.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Vermont: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 70.8% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 29.2%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Vermont sees Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 70.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 18.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Vermont: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 69.6% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 30.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Vermont has Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 69.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart & Holbrook model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 16.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Emerson poll in Vermont: Clinton with 21 points lead

Emerson published the results of a new poll on November 5. In this poll, participants from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results
47

Clinton

26

Trump

Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 68.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Vermont. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Vermont: Clinton with huge advantage in recent WCAX – Burlington*WCAX* poll

WCAX – BurlingtonWCAX published the results of a new poll on November 5. In this poll, interviewees from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

WCAX - BurlingtonWCAX poll results
50

Clinton

22

Trump

Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 22.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 19 to October 22. A total of 603 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.4% for Clinton and 30.6% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Clinton currently runs at 68.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Vermont. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the WCAX – BurlingtonWCAX poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Vermont: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 69.9% for Clinton, and 30.1% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on November 1 Trump was still predicted to achieve 30.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.3% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Vermont.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.