Jerome model in Utah: Trump with very clear lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump in Utah.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Utah: Trump with very clear lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 78.2% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to obtain 78.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Jerome model: Trump with very clear lead in Utah

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 64.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to garner 64.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Jerome model: Trump with very clear lead in Utah

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 35.4% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 64.6%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 71.4%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.8 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.4% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Utah: Trump with very clear lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 21.8% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will end up with 78.2%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in Utah, which is 16.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 30.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 33.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.4% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Utah: PredictIt prediction market foresees Trump in the lead

According to the latest results from the PredictIt prediction market Trump can expect to win the vote in Utah with a probability of %.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 21.8% for Clinton and 78.2% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 20.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. Other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 72.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 15.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 30.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.