Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Utah.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton, and 60.8% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was still predicted to collect 61.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Utah. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.8% for Clinton, and 61.2% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to gain only 38.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Jerome model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Utah.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Utah: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.0% for Clinton, and 62.0% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to win 39.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 62 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 64.5%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 64.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

DeSart & Holbrook model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 37.7% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will win 62.3%. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was still predicted to obtain 62.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Utah: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 37.7% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 62.3%. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was still predicted to win 62.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.6% for Clinton, and 61.4% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to garner 61.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Utah. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Jerome model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will win 64.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.