Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 47.5%. In comparison, on November 7, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Clinton with narrow advantage in latest Morning Call poll

Results of a new poll conducted by Morning Call were released. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Morning Call poll results
48

Clinton

42

Trump

The results show that 48.0% of respondents intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 30 to November 4 among 405 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. Relative to her numbers in the Morning Call poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Gravis poll

Gravis published the results of a new poll on November 5. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Gravis poll results
47

Clinton

45

Trump

According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between November 1 and November 2. The sample size was 1016 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 51.0% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on June 28, for Trump this result was 49.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 51.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.8% for Clinton, and 47.2% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 47.5%. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was predicted to obtain 47.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.8% for Clinton, and 47.2% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 52.8 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton, and 46.4% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to obtain 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Pennsylvania: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 53.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will win 46.7%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Pennsylvania: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 53.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 46.7%. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to collect only 53.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Morning Call poll in Pennsylvania: Clinton holds negligible lead

Results of a new poll administered by Morning Call were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Morning Call poll results
46

Clinton

41

Trump

The results show that 46.0% of interviewees indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 26 among 420 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Morning Call poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.