Trump leads in Nevada by 4 points in new Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Remington Research (R) poll results
44

Clinton

48

Trump

The results show that 44.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30, among a random sample of 1176 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.4% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.6%. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.5% of the vote.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.4% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.8% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Nevada: Clinton tied with Trump in new Gravis poll

Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were announced. The poll asked respondents from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Gravis poll results
46

Clinton

46

Trump

According to the results, billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have the same level of support, each with 46.0% of the vote.

The poll was in the field between October 25 and October 25. The sample size was 875 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Clinton has 2.5 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 48.5%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to garner 48.2% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Remington Research (R) poll in Nevada: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Remington Research (R) poll results
44

Clinton

47

Trump

Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 with 1332 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.7 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Nevada sees Trump at 47.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Trump's poll average is 3.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New 8 News NOW – Las Vegas poll in Nevada: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

8 News NOW – Las Vegas published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nevada is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

8 News NOW - Las Vegas poll results
43

Clinton

41

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 10 and October 13. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 52.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 1 percentage point higher than her respective numbers in the 8 News NOW – Las Vegas poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Nevada: New Las Vegas Review-Journal poll shows Clinton with 7 points lead

Las Vegas Review-Journal released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Las Vegas Review-Journal poll results
48

Clinton

41

Trump

According to the results, 48.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 23 among 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 52.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. Relative to her numbers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.