Nevada – PollyVote

Nevada: Trump holds slim advantage in recent Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Remington Research (R) poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30. A total of 1176 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.1%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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Nevada: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Emerson poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were announced on October 18. The poll asked respondents from Nevada for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Emerson poll results

Clinton

Trump

The results show that 44.0% of interviewees would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between October 26 and October 27. The sample size was 550 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Nevada has Clinton at 48.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

Nevada: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Remington Research (R) poll

Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Remington Research (R) poll results

Clinton

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from November 1 to November 2 with 1793 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 49.5% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. In the most recent Remington Research (R) poll on October 30 Clinton received only 47.8%, while Trump received 52.2%.

Results vs. other polls

Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.6 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.

Nevada: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Emerson poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were announced on October 18. The poll asked interviewees from Nevada for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Emerson poll results

Clinton

Trump

According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from November 4 to November 5 among 600 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on October 27 Clinton received 51.2%, while Trump received only 48.8%.

Results compared to other polls

If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. In comparison to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.

Crosstab model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.5% for Clinton, and 49.5% for Trump in Nevada.

Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, because they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 49.5%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect 50.6% of the vote.

Nevada is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome here is considered important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 49.5%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.5% of the vote.

In Nevada, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nevada econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.1%. Compared to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 50.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points lower.

Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 49.0%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.3% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

Crosstab model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.9% for Clinton, and 49.1% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to garner 48.7% of the vote.

In Nevada, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

Nevada: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Remington Research (R) poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Remington Research (R) were announced. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular interest.

Remington Research (R) poll results

Clinton

Trump

According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% intend to give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 among 1332 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls in Nevada has Trump at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.