New Mexico: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.8% for Clinton, and 46.3% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to win 46.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Zia Poll*Zia Poll* poll

On November 6, Zia PollZia Poll released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Zia PollZia Poll poll results
46

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 46.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from November 1 to November 2, among a random sample of 1102 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 52.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Mexico. Compared to her numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.0 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Zia Poll*Zia Poll* poll

Results of a new poll administered by Zia PollZia Poll were circulated on November 6. The poll asked interviewees from New Mexico for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Zia PollZia Poll poll results
46

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from November 6 to November 6 among 8439 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-1.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. In the latest Zia PollZia Poll poll on September 25 Clinton obtained 53.2%, while Trump obtained only 46.8%.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of New Mexico polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.0%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton, and 46.1% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to win 45.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.2% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will win 45.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.2% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to achieve 45.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 0.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. In comparison to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 54.2 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Small advantage for Clinton in new Zia Poll*Zia Poll* poll

Zia PollZia Poll released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Zia PollZia Poll poll results
42

Clinton

37

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from September 24 to September 25 with 1415 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Mexico. This value is 53.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Zia PollZia Poll poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 55.8% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, whereas Trump will end up with 44.2%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win only 55.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 56.7% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

New Mexico: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.1% for Clinton, and 43.9% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain only 55.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 56.8% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Crosstab model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.7% for Clinton, and 44.3% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to collect 55.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.